Budget 2021 to Be Truly Reformative!

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The Union Budget is one of the biggest events for the stock market every year. The budget session will be started on January 29 and the announcement will be concluded in February.

Expectations related to the upcoming Union Budget 2021 are high across sectors, given the impact the previous year’s coronavirus pandemic and lockdown had on the entire country – in terms of health, wealth, and people’s overall mental and physical well being, besides the challenge of finding sustainable solutions to revive the travel and hospitality segment. As the entire country prepares for the upcoming budget, a focus on growth-oriented measures, economic reforms, and inclusive growth will be critical to bringing the COVID-battered economy back on track.

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Main Focus Of Budget 2021

  • The primary objective of this year would be reviving growth. After the decline of GDP some 7.5% forecast for 2020-2021
  • The secondary objective is provide relief those who suffer from ill- effect during pandemic

In light of the current economic scenario, the industry body recommends that the government expenditure be increased in moderation and targeted towards high multiplier areas, as this will lead to additional borrowing paying for itself through higher growth over the medium term.

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What markets really seek from Budget 2020

  • To restore consumption growth, FM should acknowledge the slowdown and deliver a stirring stimulus
  • Indian equities are a poor bet, and fixed-income products are increasingly unattractive. Investors should consider US equities through exchange-traded funds, and gold

In 2019, the Nifty 50 index of the National Stock Exchange delinked itself from the economy. Growth expectations for the gross domestic product (GDP) kept sinking through the year, from over 7% to below 5%, yet the Nifty gained 12%, somewhat above its historical annual average.

There are at least three ways of looking at this dichotomy. The first is that stock markets represent our collective belief in the future of the economy, and the consensus view is that the Indian economy is going to turn around soon. The second is that, while the Nifty has done well, the rest of the equity market, not so. The third is that Indian markets have underperformed the rest of the world.

CONCLUSION

Already the markets are trading at all-time highs and scaling new highs in almost every new session. Long-term investors can focus on the original portfolio strategy without making any substantial changes owing to the budget.

Massive investments in infrastructure, both in urban and rural areas, are needed to facilitate an economic rebound. The government needs to explore revenue generating options such as divestment and rationalizing unnecessary expenditure. It should formulate a clear roadmap on divestment and act on its intention to disinvest in non-strategic sectors.

The government should exit loss-making enterprises, such as Scooters India, Air India, HMT, Cement Corporation of India, and British India Corporation, and implement disinvestment of LIC at the earliest. Putting assets such as ports and airports up for strategic sale, either through stock markets or transparent auctions, could also garner much-needed monetary resources to fund infrastructural growth. The government could also monetize the surplus land assets of railways and defense, and increase foreign borrowing in order to garner additional funds to boost growth, CII concludes.

UPDATE

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