PAID Report – Corona & Recession – Strategies to Sail Through!

Recession Strategy

As informed earlier, the Global Economy has entered a Recession – At this time one should be taking Calculated Moves to ensure Health & Wealth Preservation! (not Destruction)

Corona is just 3 Months Problem

Corona will calm down in just 3 months – due to multiple factors like quarantine, cure arrival, climate change etc.

(already the growth of cases is reducing & stock futures are up – so this may not go worse that much; see MIT study LINK)

Stocks will crash heavily in this time – if the prices are over-valued the crash will be more – so I see more crash in US stocks than in Indian stocks.

If you are an INTELLIGENT INVESTOR You have to:

corona-convert-problem

Stock Market Strategy

Don’t Panic & Do not check your portfolio on these days – as it is going to be miserable.  Now the time changed & you should change the strategy too.

As you know, during 2015 slowdown times, instead of being panic & selling stocks, we came up with a Gold Strategy which gained 500% returns in 5 years.

Note Futurecaps already warned followers in 2018 the market was high & to book profits – we have done the same.  We re-entered during 2019 when the smallcap & midcap was down.  Now we are seeing another bear attack which we should be approaching judiciously.

Bear Market are Boons!

As I said before, Worrying is a Waste of Time!

Instead of worrying, One can convert Problems to Opportunities – See the chart below – Historically all the bear markets have multi-fold bull runs covering them.  So if you can buy the stocks low – then you can get 5X-10X returns in next 3-5 years.

bear-market-are-boons

Similar report we are publishing here along with 5 stocks to invest during recession times.  This is a Paid Report as we don’t want to waste our Effort on wrong hands.

This Presentation contains the following contents:

corona-virus-recession-stock-strategies

Minimum & Maximum Levels of Crisis!

corona-recession-strategies

What else you can do the Idle Time to increase your Value!

corona-recession-strategies-

We will be providing 5 Recession Opportunity Stocks!

Buy Now

We don’t want to waste time & energy on free unused information,  hence this is a Paid Report, but we kept the Affordability level easy!

Note: Paid Subscribers 1Y/3Y Plan will get this Freely

Corona Virus & Stock Market Impact

We are getting lot of queries on:

  • Whether Recession started?
  • Can I sell my holdings to stop losses?
  • Which stocks to Buy now?
  • How long the Corona problems persist?

Don’t Panic! 

is the first thing I wanted to say.. If you get panic, you will take bad decisions, your immunity goes down & bad for your wealth & health!

Corona Situation

Clearly it has started a Recession – but our Calculation is that the First Relief comes in 3 months – due to multiple factors like quarantine effect, cure arrival, climate change etc.

(already the growth of cases is reducing & stock futures are up – so this may not go worse that much; see MIT study LINK)

The Currently Impacted Sectors are BEACH:

  • Booking businesses
  • Entertainment businesses
  • Airlines businesses
  • Cruise businesses
  • Hotels businesses

All the employees from above sectors will have Immediate Impact.

Note If the situation last more than 3 months then IT & IT enabled sectors will also see employment troubles.

Take care of Health

As the first step one should follow the Quarantine order of Government, Sanitize regularly & Maintain social distancing.

Jaan hei to Jahaan hei!

Take care of Wealth

I am repeating this in our sessions too, Keep aside 1 Year Emergency Fund.  This can come in form of Gold, Fixed Deposits & Liquid Cash.

Once you have the 1Y EmF ready then there is no need to be Panic!

World is not going to end in 1 Year – Keep Hope!

Job Strategy

If your Job is going to be in trouble, make sure you spend time on Up-scaling Skills, Doing Certifications, Acquiring knowledge etc.

Moratorium or Not

One can avail the Moratorium of RBI, if you seriously need it.

But keep in mind that it will increase your Interest Payment for 3 months! LINK

Worrying is a Waste of Time!

No matter how much you are going to Worry or Pray – Situations are not going to Improve – It will Scientific Approaches & Healing Time to cure the situation.

One should be Smart enough to be Safe as well as Gain from the Situations!

Stock Market Strategy

Do not check your portfolio on these days – as it is going to be miserable.  Now the time changed & you should change the strategy too.

As informed earlier, you can find our Recession Strategy report HERE.

Globus Spirits – Multibagger Analysis

In this post we can explore Globus Spirits as a Multibagger base on Warren Buffet methodologies.

Globus Spirits Ltd.

NSE Code GLOBUSSPR.NS
BSE Code 533104
URL http://www.globusspirits.com/
CMP 125.22
Free Report Yes
Publish Date Feb-07-2020

About Company

Founded in 1992, Globus Spirits is the Largest grain based distilleries in India headed by Mr. Ajay Kumar. It is into liquor business for last 25 years and commenced operation in Haryana currently leading player in Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi.  It is using 360 degree business model where IMIL (Indian Manufactured Indian Liquor), IMFL (Indian Manufactured Foreign Liquor), Franchisee Bottling all are held.

The company recorded 20% growth in Net Income & 400% growth in Net Profit.  Liquor Business in India is expected to grow at 8% per annum till 2025.  Company is running at 85% capacity utilization of 160 million liter.

globus-spirits-multibagger-futurecaps

Company manufactures the following brands including joined manufacturing for new Brand UNIBEV which is under leadership of Vijay Rekhi (veteran UB Spirits) link link

globus-spirits-brands-multibagger-futurecaps

Warren Buffet, Value & Growth Checklist

Following are the Checklist parameters:

Capitalization 350 CR – Can provide ample growth in capitalization green
History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow Yes. green
Durable Competitive Advantage Moderate. yellow
Future Growth Drivers / Sector Growth Yes. green
Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit) No, Debt is high. red
Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio Debt is high.

Current Ratio is 0.84

yellow
Return on Equity must be Above Average 8% red
Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations No. yellow
Inventory Turnover Ratio, Debtor Days, ROCE Moderate yellow
Management is holding / buying the stock Yes, Increasing holdings by Promoters green
Market Price < Intrinsic Value Yes with 90% Discount. Intrinsic Value Calculator green
Stock Price is consolidating (now) Yes green
Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth No, North-South curves exists red
Consolidated PE, PB Ratio, PEG Ratio PE 9

PB 0.9

PEG 0.1

superb
Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8% Cash Flow: NegativeNet Profit %: No red
Paying Dividends, Tax No Dividends

Yes Tax

yellow
EPS Growth Rate 50% above past 2 years superb
Jump in Trailing Result EPS Yes green
Jump in Quarterly Result EPS YesBut, March q-o-q shows decline in profits green
Expected Gain in 5 Years 300-500% green
Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low Okay green
Volume Analysis 1.2 Lakh yellow
Power of Brand Yes green
Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders Yes green
Fraud reported No. green

Positive Factors

Here are the positive factors regarding Globus Spirits

  • Company is in growth spree
  • Company is quoting near book value – Safe to enter now
  • Promoters are increasing stake
  • UNIBEV alliance will help to grow faster
  • Budget 2020 will help growth in Sales

Concern Factors

Here are the concern factors regarding Globus Spirits

  • Debt is high
  • Cash Flow is negative
  • Government Regulations can impact Profitability

Summary

Based on the above analysis I would like to say that the Globus Spirits possess Multibagger Stock properties and one can Invest in 2020.  However one should not expect high compounded returns from this stock.  It can be considered as Moderate Risk Moderate Returns investment.

image

Note

This is a Free Multibagger recommend as a Backup to the Paid Multibagger which is also in Alcohol sector.  Do not waste time as Market is still low for 5-Year Full Cycle Multibagger Returns

Renew your subscription to know the Paid Stock & Get free Post Budget Report & Essential Training too.  3 Year Subscription – link.

Intrinsic Value of 20 Indian Stocks – HDFC Bank, SBI, Reliance Industries, Adani Ports, Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Infosys, TCS, Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy, Meghmani Organics, Jiya Eco, Wonderla Holidays, PSP Projects, Associated Alcohol, SRG Housing, CanFin Housing, Maithan Alloys, Bhageria Industries, Caplin Point, Veto Switchgears, KEI Industries, Gulf Lubricants, Acrysil, BCL Industries, Hester Bioscience, Aster DM & More

One should not take decision based on Price.  It should be based on Price & Growth aspects.  That is the reason Big Investors like Warren Buffet relies on Intrinsic Value & Fair Value.

Intrinsic Value is the present value of the company after applying the past growth rate for the future next 10 years.

Fair Value is discount of 30% on Intrinsic Value.

Rule of Thumb

  • If the CMP is less than Fair Value then BUY.
  • If the CMP is greater than Fair Value & less than Intrinsic Value then HOLD.
  • If the CMP is greater than Intrinsic Value then SELL

Intrinsic Value & Fair Value of Largecaps

Company CMP Intrinsic Value Fair Value Recommendation
HDFC Bank 1289 971 680 Sell
SBI 332 187 131 Sell
Reliance Industries 1546 1747 1223 Hold
Adani Ports 368 681 477 Buy
Tata Motors 175 Loss Loss Sell
Ashok Leyland 80 60 42 Sell
Infosys 733 490 343 Sell
TCS 2216 1865 1306 Sell
Sun Pharmaceuticals 430 678 475 Buy
Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories 2896 8844 6191 Buy

Intrinsic Value & Fair Value of Smallcaps & Midcaps


Company CMP Intrinsic Value Fair Value Recommendation
Meghmani Organics 56.65 539.32 377.53 Buy
Assoc.Alcohols 185.6 781.22 546.86 Buy
PSP Projects 495.55 1682 1177.4 Buy
KEI Inds. 474.95 1375.16 962.61 Buy
Gulf Oil Lubricants 812.1 1197.69 838.38 Buy
Tata Elxsi 827.85 277.79 194.46 Sell
Automotive Axles 819.6 1304.42 913.09 Buy
Acrysil 95.2 334.84 234.39 Buy
BCL Industries 74.45 1231.71 862.2 Buy
Bharat Parenterals 168 4183.17 2928.22 Buy
Sandhar Tech 250.1 372.92 261.05 Buy
Aster DM Health 162.7 131.47 92.03 Sell
Hester Bios 1452.1 3100.36 2170.25 Buy
Bella Casa 119.75 357.1 249.97 Buy
Bhageria Indust. 116.85 605.03 423.52 Buy
SRG Housing 83.1 1128.7 790.09 Buy
Can Fin Homes 395.35 354.21 247.95 Sell
Jiya Eco-Product 26.65 730.91 511.64 Buy
Veto Switchgears 36.55 -266.29 -186.4 Hold
Caplin Point Lab 294.6 938.35 656.85 Buy
Maithan Alloys 464.85 -1193.73 -835.61 Hold
Wonderla Holiday 246.9 595.92 417.15 Buy

Is Kanchi Karpooram a Multibagger?

We are publishing this Analysis based on the Query from our Paid Subscriber.  The company have good Trailing results & seems to lure lot of investors.

Let us analyze in Warren Buffet way on the Financials.

NSE Code KANCHI.NS
BSE Code 538896
URL https://www.kanchikarpooram.com/
CMP 270
Free Report Yes
Publish Date Nov-15-2019

Kanchi Karpooram Limited (KKL), a Public Limited Company, manufactures Camphor, its derivatives, Gum rosin, Value Added Resins and Fortified Rosin. Over the last 25 years, it has a proven track record for quality, competitive price and timely supply to a variety of customer across industries. The main product Camphor has been well accepted by customers. Besides Camphor and its derivatives, KKL’s products such as Gum rosin and Rosin Derivatives, also enjoy an enviable share in the market, including some of the most trusted brands across the world.

Warren Buffet, Value & Growth Checklist

Following are the 25 Checklist parameters:

Capitalization 115 Crore green
History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow Yes. green
Durable Competitive Advantage Moderate. yellow
Future Growth Drivers / Sector Growth Moderate. yellow
Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit) Yes green
Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio Both are Good green
Return on Equity must be Above Average 55% (Excellent) green
Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations Moderate yellow
Inventory Turnover Ratio, Debtor Days, ROCE Increasing. Moderate yellow
Management is holding / buying the stock Yes green
Market Price < Intrinsic Value Yes. green
Stock Price is consolidating (now) Yes yellow
Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth Yes green
Consolidated PE, PB Ratio, PEG Ratio PE 4, PB is 2X,  PEG 0.2 green
Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8% Cash Flow: NegativeNet Profit: Yes yellow
Paying Dividends, Tax Yes green
EPS Growth Rate 30% above green
Jump in Trailing Result EPS Yes green
Jump in Quarterly Result EPS Yes.  But recent 2 q-o-q not increasing in profits yellow
Expected Gain in 5 Years 200-300%

(If smallcap/midcap market restores)

yellow
Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low Okay green
Volume Analysis 2000 yellow
Power of Brand Moderate yellow
Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders Very small company.  Cannot measure this. yellow
Fraud reported Not in current search. green

Summary

Based on the above analysis we can see Kanchi Karpooram have Multibagger Stock properties.  Company aligns with Warren Buffet principles of Value & Growth Investing.  It  can be considered as Low Risk Moderate Returns investment.  However, investor has to do more due diligence on the stock before investing.

Note: We only do 100 Point checklist on Paid Multibaggers which the Advisor Team also will be Investing.  Do not waste time with free multibaggers where you will not get tracking updates.  Visit Subscribe to know more.

PSP Projects Multibagger Analysis (Warren Buffet Way)

In this post we can analyze PSP Projects based on Warren Buffet methodology.

NSE Code PSPPROJECT.NS
BSE Code 540544
URL http://www.pspprojects.com/
CMP 540
Free Report Yes
Publish Date Oct-30-2019

PSP Projects is a multidisciplinary construction company offering a diversified range of construction and allied services across industrial, institutional, government, government residential and residential projects in India. They provide our services across the construction value chain, ranging from planning and design to construction and post-construction activities to private and public sector enterprises.

Warren Buffet, Value & Growth Checklist

Following are the Checklist parameters:

Capitalization 2000 Crore green
History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow Yes. green
Durable Competitive Advantage Yes. green
Future Growth Drivers / Sector Growth Yes. green
Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit) No, company have slightly higher debt red
Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio Debt Equity Ratio is 0.17

Current Ratio is 1.5

green
Return on Equity must be Above Average 27% (Good) green
Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations Moderate yellow
Inventory Turnover Ratio, Debtor Days, ROCE Moderate yellow
Management is holding / buying the stock Yes green
Market Price < Intrinsic Value Yes. Intrinsic Value at Rs. 1128 Intrinsic Value Calculator green
Stock Price is consolidating (now) No.  Price is at Peak levels due to QR Jumps which Indicate a 100% Returns on Bull Market. However a slash in earnings will cut 50% of Price too as we are currently in Bear Market yellow
Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth Yes. green
Consolidated PE, PB Ratio, PEG Ratio PE Good, PB is 5X,  PEG is good yellow
Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8% Cash Flow: Negative

Net Profit: Yes

yellow
Paying Dividends, Tax Yes green
EPS Growth Rate 20% above green
Jump in Trailing Result EPS Yes green
Jump in Quarterly Result EPS Yes green
Expected Gain in 5 Years 300-500% green
Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low Okay green
Volume Analysis 13000 yellow
Power of Brand Yes, Company has good Brand & Promoters green
Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders Yes green
Fraud reported No. green

Summary

Based on the above analysis we can see PSP Projects have Multibagger Stock properties & One can Invest during 2019 year.  Company aligns with Warren Buffet principles of Value & Growth Investing.  It  can be considered as Low Risk Moderate Returns investment.

image

Premium Services

This stock analysis is part of our Free Services where Tracking & Updates will Not be provided.  If you are a Serious Investor, we encourage to Buy our Premium Service where our Adviser Team is investing along with Tracking & Updates.

Disclaimer Futurecaps is an independent equity research team. Use of the information herein is at Investor’s own risk. This is not an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities and Futurecaps will not be liable for any losses incurred for the investment based on the advice.  The Investor is advised to do due diligence in the scrip mentioned.  None of Futurecaps Advisors hold 1% above Holdings of this company.

 

Is Bella Casa a Multibagger Stock based on Warren Buffet Analysis?

Bella Casa Fashion & Retail Ltd

NSE Code BELLACASA.NS
BSE Code 539399
URL http://www.bellacasa.in/
CMP 122
Free Report Yes
Publish Date Sep-30-2019

In this post we would like to Explore the Multibagger Stock Potential of Bella Casa.

bella casa

Bella Casa Fashion & Retail Ltd is operating in fast growing fashion market of India. Bella Casa is catering to 2 lakh cr market. The market size of home furnishings, women ethnic wear and men’s ethnic wear is more than Rs 2 lacs cr.

Positive Factors

Company have consistent 15% Revenue & Profit growth in past 3 years.

bella-income-statement

Company is quoting at Low PE of 15 due to current market sentiments

Company is trading at 40% discount from 52 week high due to market sentiments, GST troubles etc.

Company is poised for long term growth advantages due to Structural Tax changes & India growth story.

Company has more than 4000 retail outlets in india & expanding through branding, innovation, e-commerce & deep penetration.

India is 2nd largest exporter of home textiles & hold 7% global share. The India home decor consumption is growing at CAGR 8% due to real estate trends, millenial disposable income etc. which will support the company growth in future too.

Company had Expanded Capacity activation in current financial year.

Concern Factors

Current Quarter EPS growth is low due to GST & Tax Impacts.  This is measured to be recovering in upcoming years.

Global Recession can impact the Sales in near future.  But long term seems to be okay.

FDI Participation, Increased Competition from Global Brands, Government policies are Other Threats in the path of the company

Warren Buffet, Value & Growth Checklist

Following are the Checklist parameters:

Capitalization 140 Crore green
History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow Yes. green
Durable Competitive Advantage Yes. green
Future Growth Drivers / Sector Growth Yes. green
Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit) No, company have higher debt red
Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio Debt Equity Ratio is 1 (this is bad for growth)

Current Ratio is 4 ( no liquidity crunch)

red
Return on Equity must be Above Average 21% (Good) green
Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations No yellow
Inventory Turnover Ratio, Debtor Days, ROCE Moderate, High Debtor Days yellow
Management is holding / buying the stock Management sold 5% red
Market Price < Intrinsic Value Yes. Intrinsic Value at Rs. 250 Intrinsic Value Calculator green
Stock Price is consolidating (now) Yes green
Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth Yes. green
Consolidated PE, PB Ratio, PEG Ratio Okay yellow
Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8% Cash Flow: Negative

Net Profit: No

yellow
Paying Dividends, Tax Yes green
EPS Growth Rate 15% above green
Jump in Trailing Result EPS Yes green
Jump in Quarterly Result EPS Yes green
Expected Gain in 5 Years 300-500% green
Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low Okay green
Volume Analysis 82 (good for existing investors, bad for new investors) yellow
Power of Brand Yes, Company has good Brand & Ambassador Jacqueline Fernandez green
Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders Yes green
Fraud reported No.  But high remuneration ration & increments for core promoters green

Summary

Based on the above analysis I would like to declare that the Bella Casa possess Multibagger Stock in Indian Stock Market & One can Invest during 2019 year.  Company aligns with Warren Buffet principles of Value & Growth Investing.  It  can be considered as Low Risk Moderate Returns investment.

image

Premium Services

This stock analysis is part of our Free Services where Tracking & Updates will Not be provided.  If you are a Serious Investor, we encourage to Buy our Premium Service where our Adviser Team is investing along with Tracking & Updates.

Disclaimer Futurecaps is an independent equity research team. Use of the information herein is at Investor’s own risk. This is not an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities and Futurecaps will not be liable for any losses incurred for the investment based on the advice.  The Investor is advised to do due diligence in the scrip mentioned.  None of Futurecaps Advisors hold 1% above Holdings of this company.

 

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