IRCTC Multibagger Stock 2020

In this post we can analyze IRCTC Multibagger Stock potential using Warren Buffett method of Multibagger Analysis.

Corona Situation

The current corona situation has caused recession & thereby severely affected the Tourism & Hospitality sectors. People have halted unwanted travels & leisure.

Tourism & Hospitality Sector

Corona has impacted the Tourism sector badly. Due to the impacts it can take another 1-2 year to fully restore the business OR depending on as fast the Corona Virus cure arrives in form of medicines/vaccines.

Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation Ltd

NSE CodeIRCTC.NS
BSE Code542830 
URLhttps://www.irctc.com/
CMP1400
Free ReportYes
Publish DateJul-3-2020
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About Company

Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation Ltd. (IRCTC) is a Central Public Sector Enterprise under Ministry of Railways, Government of India. IRCTC was incorporated on 27 September, 1999 as an extended arm of the Indian Railways to upgrade, professionalize and manage the catering and hospitality services at stations, on trains and other locations and to promote domestic and international tourism through development of budget hotels, special tour packages, information & commercial publicity and global reservation systems. It is fully subscribed by Ministry of Railways, Government of India. It’s registered and Corporate Office is situated at New Delhi.

The company generates revenue through e-Ticketing website & apps, Rain Neer drinking water, Tourism Packages.

irctc multibagger stock

Warren Buffett, Value & Growth Checklist

Following are the Checklist parameters we applied on IRCTC.

Capitalization200 CR – Good for giving multibagger returns.
History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash FlowNo. Recent Sales are showing Trouble in Growth.
Durable Competitive AdvantageNo. Company is Struggling on Competition
Future Growth Drivers / Sector GrowthFuture Growth after Corona Troubles is anticipated to be 10% based on past years average
Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)Huge Debts
Debt Equity Ratio, Current RatioHuge Debts
Return on Equity must be Above Average27%
Low CAPEX required to maintain current operationsNo
Inventory Turnover Ratio, Debtor Days, ROCEITR not good, Debtor Days Increasing, ROCE is low.
Management is holding / buying the stockNo. Promoters sold 17% in last 3 years.
Market Price < Intrinsic ValueIntrinsic Value is screwed up due to No EPS Growth. Intrinsic Value Calculator
Stock Price is consolidating (now)Yes.
Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growthYes
Consolidated PE, PB Ratio, PEG RatioPE is bad. PB is good. PEG is bad.
Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%Negative. Net Profit % is < 1%
Paying Dividends, TaxNot clean. Fraud Analysis required.
EPS Growth RateRecent Growth is not there.
Jump in Trailing Result EPSNo
Jump in Quarterly Result EPSNo.
Expected Gain in 5 YearsCan’t Predict as company is in loss of 651 crores currently.
Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & LowPrice closer to 52 week high
Volume AnalysisHigh Volume (crash high on bear times)
Power of BrandBad.
Corporate Governance, Reputation of LeadersBad
Fraud reportedNeed deeper check.

SUMMARY

Positive Factors

Based on the above evaluations here are the positive factors regarding IRCTC

  • Company is having Good Growth potential
  • Company is debt-free
  • Corona times not impacted the Revenue & Profit of the company much
  • Good Dividend Payer
  • Huge growth potential in Ticket Booking for Train & Airlines
  • Huge growth potential in Catering, Drinking Water Manufacturing business

Concern Factors

Here are the concern factors regarding IRCTC

  • As you can see the company is Over valued
  • No Intrinsic Value discounts (Maruti traded at BMW cost)
  • Value Investors may not enter this company, for instance
  • Company does not have High Reputation on the area of service – Website is troublesome, Apps are not impressive
  • Company Profitability can get affected by Government Regulations
  • New Entrants into Catering & Online Booking business is a Threat

Summary

Based on the above analysis I would to say that the IRCTC DOES NOT have multibagger properties as per Value Investing. If the Valuation change in near future we will change this report.

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