In this post we can analyze IRCTC Multibagger Stock potential using Warren Buffett method of Multibagger Analysis.
The current corona situation has caused recession & thereby severely affected the Tourism & Hospitality sectors. People have halted unwanted travels & leisure.
Tourism & Hospitality Sector
Corona has impacted the Tourism sector badly. Due to the impacts it can take another 1-2 year to fully restore the business OR depending on as fast the Corona Virus cure arrives in form of medicines/vaccines.
Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation Ltd
Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation Ltd. (IRCTC) is a Central Public Sector Enterprise under Ministry of Railways, Government of India. IRCTC was incorporated on 27 September, 1999 as an extended arm of the Indian Railways to upgrade, professionalize and manage the catering and hospitality services at stations, on trains and other locations and to promote domestic and international tourism through development of budget hotels, special tour packages, information & commercial publicity and global reservation systems. It is fully subscribed by Ministry of Railways, Government of India. It’s registered and Corporate Office is situated at New Delhi.
The company generates revenue through e-Ticketing website & apps, Rain Neer drinking water, Tourism Packages.
Warren Buffett, Value & Growth Checklist
Following are the Checklist parameters we applied on IRCTC.
|Capitalization||200 CR – Good for giving multibagger returns.|
|History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow||No. Recent Sales are showing Trouble in Growth.|
|Durable Competitive Advantage||No. Company is Struggling on Competition|
|Future Growth Drivers / Sector Growth||Future Growth after Corona Troubles is anticipated to be 10% based on past years average|
|Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)||Huge Debts|
|Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio||Huge Debts|
|Return on Equity must be Above Average||27%|
|Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations||No|
|Inventory Turnover Ratio, Debtor Days, ROCE||ITR not good, Debtor Days Increasing, ROCE is low.|
|Management is holding / buying the stock||No. Promoters sold 17% in last 3 years.|
|Market Price < Intrinsic Value||Intrinsic Value is screwed up due to No EPS Growth. Intrinsic Value Calculator|
|Stock Price is consolidating (now)||Yes.|
|Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth||Yes|
|Consolidated PE, PB Ratio, PEG Ratio||PE is bad. PB is good. PEG is bad.|
|Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%||Negative. Net Profit % is < 1%|
|Paying Dividends, Tax||Not clean. Fraud Analysis required.|
|EPS Growth Rate||Recent Growth is not there.|
|Jump in Trailing Result EPS||No|
|Jump in Quarterly Result EPS||No.|
|Expected Gain in 5 Years||Can’t Predict as company is in loss of 651 crores currently.|
|Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low||Price closer to 52 week high|
|Volume Analysis||High Volume (crash high on bear times)|
|Power of Brand||Bad.|
|Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders||Bad|
|Fraud reported||Need deeper check.|
Based on the above evaluations here are the positive factors regarding IRCTC
- Company is having Good Growth potential
- Company is debt-free
- Corona times not impacted the Revenue & Profit of the company much
- Good Dividend Payer
- Huge growth potential in Ticket Booking for Train & Airlines
- Huge growth potential in Catering, Drinking Water Manufacturing business
Here are the concern factors regarding IRCTC
- As you can see the company is Over valued
- No Intrinsic Value discounts (Maruti traded at BMW cost)
- Value Investors may not enter this company, for instance
- Company does not have High Reputation on the area of service – Website is troublesome, Apps are not impressive
- Company Profitability can get affected by Government Regulations
- New Entrants into Catering & Online Booking business is a Threat
Based on the above analysis I would to say that the IRCTC DOES NOT have multibagger properties as per Value Investing. If the Valuation change in near future we will change this report.
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