Intrinsic Value of 20 Indian Stocks – HDFC Bank, SBI, Reliance Industries, Adani Ports, Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Infosys, TCS, Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy, Meghmani Organics, Jiya Eco, Wonderla Holidays, PSP Projects, Associated Alcohol, SRG Housing, CanFin Housing, Maithan Alloys, Bhageria Industries, Caplin Point, Veto Switchgears, KEI Industries, Gulf Lubricants, Acrysil, BCL Industries, Hester Bioscience, Aster DM & More

One should not take decision based on Price.  It should be based on Price & Growth aspects.  That is the reason Big Investors like Warren Buffet relies on Intrinsic Value & Fair Value.

Intrinsic Value is the present value of the company after applying the past growth rate for the future next 10 years.

Fair Value is discount of 30% on Intrinsic Value.

Rule of Thumb

  • If the CMP is less than Fair Value then BUY.
  • If the CMP is greater than Fair Value & less than Intrinsic Value then HOLD.
  • If the CMP is greater than Intrinsic Value then SELL

Intrinsic Value & Fair Value of Largecaps

Company CMP Intrinsic Value Fair Value Recommendation
HDFC Bank 1289 971 680 Sell
SBI 332 187 131 Sell
Reliance Industries 1546 1747 1223 Hold
Adani Ports 368 681 477 Buy
Tata Motors 175 Loss Loss Sell
Ashok Leyland 80 60 42 Sell
Infosys 733 490 343 Sell
TCS 2216 1865 1306 Sell
Sun Pharmaceuticals 430 678 475 Buy
Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories 2896 8844 6191 Buy

Intrinsic Value & Fair Value of Smallcaps & Midcaps


Company CMP Intrinsic Value Fair Value Recommendation
Meghmani Organics 56.65 539.32 377.53 Buy
Assoc.Alcohols 185.6 781.22 546.86 Buy
PSP Projects 495.55 1682 1177.4 Buy
KEI Inds. 474.95 1375.16 962.61 Buy
Gulf Oil Lubricants 812.1 1197.69 838.38 Buy
Tata Elxsi 827.85 277.79 194.46 Sell
Automotive Axles 819.6 1304.42 913.09 Buy
Acrysil 95.2 334.84 234.39 Buy
BCL Industries 74.45 1231.71 862.2 Buy
Bharat Parenterals 168 4183.17 2928.22 Buy
Sandhar Tech 250.1 372.92 261.05 Buy
Aster DM Health 162.7 131.47 92.03 Sell
Hester Bios 1452.1 3100.36 2170.25 Buy
Bella Casa 119.75 357.1 249.97 Buy
Bhageria Indust. 116.85 605.03 423.52 Buy
SRG Housing 83.1 1128.7 790.09 Buy
Can Fin Homes 395.35 354.21 247.95 Sell
Jiya Eco-Product 26.65 730.91 511.64 Buy
Veto Switchgears 36.55 -266.29 -186.4 Hold
Caplin Point Lab 294.6 938.35 656.85 Buy
Maithan Alloys 464.85 -1193.73 -835.61 Hold
Wonderla Holiday 246.9 595.92 417.15 Buy

Wonderla Holidays – Multibagger Analysis

In this post I would like to provide Analysis on Wonderla Holidays.  The company was listed almost 5 years back & still trading at approximated price after Inflation.

Wonderla Holidays

CMP: 300.00

Website: https://www.wonderla.com/

Wonderla Holidays Limited operates three largest amusement parks in Kochi, Bangalore and Hyderabad; and the Wonderla resort in Bangalore under the brand name Wonderla.

Promoted by Kochouseph Chittilappilly (of V-Guard) link

It is a Sad Truth that the Investors did not got the V-Guard kind of Appreciation from this stock, which they expected a lot.  There can be multiple factors into it like IPO-overpricing, Growth-perspective, Asset-intensive operations, GST-issues etc.

However, due to the Promoter Reputations on High Quality, Corporate Governance, Humanity aspects, the stock has attracted high profile investors like NR Narayana Murthy.

So let us look into the business & value parameters to determine any multibagger potentials.

Business Evaluation

The company generates income from the 3 main parks in kochi, bangalore & hyderabad. Interestingly, the food business constitutes 39% of the revenue.

Positive Factors

Company is expanding to Chennai.  plus, adding more rides, in-house manufacturing & improving efficiencies to existing parks.  All together these will ensure 150-20% revenue growth in coming years.

Company also have advantage of surplus land which ensures further expansion in coming 10 years.  Low Utilization would be a parameter to evaluate.

GST impacted current year Sales, but the latest quarters are improving.

Company has Low Debts which is good in one sense & bad in another view that Leveraged Growth is not there.

Company is adding RFID, No-Queue solutions in the Technical Arena to increase the Footfalls.

No Pledging of shares.

Problem Areas

Considered as Holiday Tiger – Revenue goes double during June quarter there by increasing NPA / Idle resources during other periods.  Scope of Corporate Outing, Official Programmes rendering during Weekdays would increase the ROE.

High PE is one problem with this stock.

High PEG ratio is a derived problem.

Low ROE.

Limited Lows

One advantage I can see is that the Promoters are buying back Wondera stocks due to the bear market so one can expect the lows are limited.

Warren Buffett Checklist

History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow
Yes
image

Durable Competitive Advantage
Yes
image

Future Growth Drivers
Moderate.
image

Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)
Yes
image

Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio
DER is Zero, Current Ratio is Average.
image

Return on Equity must be Above Average
No

image

Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations
Moderate

image

Management is holding / buying the stock
Yes
image

Price is Under Valued (< intrinsic value)
No
image

Stock Price is consolidating (now)
Yes
image

Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth
Yes
image

Additional Futurecaps Checklist

Consolidated PE, PB Ratio
PE is high, PB is okay
image

Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%
Yes
image

Paying Dividends, Tax
Yes
image

EPS Growth Rate
Good
image

Jump in Trailing Result EPS
Yes, But Moderate

image

Jump in Quarterly Result EPS
Yes, But Moderate

image

Expected Gain in 5 Years
2X
image

Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low
Yes
image

Volume Analysis
Good
image

Power of Brand
Yes
image

Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders
Promoters selling holdings is an Issue in Past.
image

Fraud reported
Not in current search
image

Annual Report
Good
image

Summary

Based on the analysis, I would declare that the Stock definitely has Multibagger properties with expected 2-3X returns in next 5 years.

However, buying it at 30-50% discounts would add margin of safety.

image_thumb1

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Is Wonderla Holidays a Multibagger Stock based on Warren Buffet?

In this post I would like to provide Analysis on Wonderla Holidays for the Multibagger Stock properties.  The company was listed almost 5 years back & still trading at approximated price after Inflation.

Wonderla Holidays

CMP: 300.00

Website: https://www.wonderla.com/

Wonderla Holidays Limited operates three largest amusement parks in Kochi, Bangalore and Hyderabad; and the Wonderla resort in Bangalore under the brand name Wonderla.

Promoted by Kochouseph Chittilappilly (of V-Guard) link

Wonderla Holidays Multibagger Stock

It is a Sad Truth that the Investors did not got the V-Guard kind of Appreciation from this stock, which they expected a lot.  There can be multiple factors into it like IPO-overpricing, Growth-perspective, Asset-intensive operations, GST-issues etc.

However, due to the Promoter Reputations on High Quality, Corporate Governance, Humanity aspects, the stock has attracted high profile investors like NR Narayana Murthy.

So let us look into the business & value parameters to determine any multibagger potentials.

Business Evaluation

The company generates income from the 3 main parks in kochi, bangalore & hyderabad. Interestingly, the food business constitutes 39% of the revenue.

Positive Factors

Company is expanding to Chennai.  plus, adding more rides, in-house manufacturing & improving efficiencies to existing parks.  All together these will ensure 150-20% revenue growth in coming years.

Company also have advantage of surplus land which ensures further expansion in coming 10 years.  Low Utilization would be a parameter to evaluate.

GST impacted current year Sales, but the latest quarters are improving.

Company has Low Debts which is good in one sense & bad in another view that Leveraged Growth is not there.

Company is adding RFID, No-Queue solutions in the Technical Arena to increase the Footfalls.

No Pledging of shares.

Wonderla in the process of acquiring land and setting up one more park in Chennai. Once the Chennai park has been set up the company intends to set up one new park 3 years. The parks will be funded through a combination of internal accruals and debt.

Wonderla enjoys the following facts:

  • Reputed Ethical Management under the Leadership of Kochouseph Chittilappilly who is a Trusted Icon in Kerala.
  • The largest amusement park chain in India with 3 parks in Kochi, Bangalore & Hyderabad
  • Wonderla parks in Bangalore, Kochi and Hyderabad were ranked at 1, 4 and 8 respectively in India by Tripadvisor in 2017
  • Plans for the 4th Park in Chennai underway
  • Management plans to add one park in every 2-3 years
  • Management has over 18 years of experience in amusement park sector
  • Land parcels in all existing parks for future expansions

Concern Factors

Considered as Holiday Tiger – Revenue goes double during June quarter there by increasing NPA / Idle resources during other periods.  Scope of Corporate Outing, Official Programmes rendering during Weekdays would increase the ROE.

High PE is one problem with this stock.

High PEG ratio is a derived problem.

Low ROE.

Limited Lows

One advantage I can see is that the Promoters are buying back Wondera stocks due to the bear market so one can expect the lows are limited.

Warren Buffett Checklist

History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash FlowYes.

 

 

image
Durable Competitive AdvantageModerate.image
Future Growth DriversModerate.image
Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)Not.image
Debt Equity Ratio, Current RatioDER is Zero, Current Ratio is Averageimage
Return on Equity must be Above AverageNo.image
Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations

High Capex required.

(this also works as entry barrier or economic moat for competitors)

image
Management is holding / buying the stock

Yes.

(current price crash is opportunity)

image
Price is Under Valued (< intrinsic value)

No.

As per the Futurecaps Intrinsic Value Calculator with 20% growth projection the company is trading at NO DISCOUNT to current market value.

image
Stock Price is consolidating (now)Yes.image
Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growthYes.image

Additional Futurecaps Checklist

Consolidated PE, PB Ratio

PE is high, PB is 2X

(PB is attractive)

image
Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%Yes. Yes.image
Paying Dividends, TaxYes, Yesimage
EPS Growth Rate

Not impressive.

(but once Chennai park is running & 2-3 year new parks additions happening, the EPS shoudl clock around 20%)

image
Jump in Trailing Result EPSYes. But moderate. 
Jump in Quarterly Result EPSYes. But moderate.image
Expected Gain in 5 Years2-3Ximage
Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & LowOkayimage
Volume AnalysisOkay.image
Power of BrandGood.image
Corporate Governance, Reputation of LeadersOkay.image
Fraud reportedNo.image
Celebrity InvestorsYesimage

Summary

Based on the analysis, I would declare that the Stock definitely has Multibagger properties with expected 2-3X returns in next 5 years.  For getting super bagger returns of 10-20 times, one should keep an Investing view of 20 years plus.

image_thumb1

Note

Free Multibaggers are those with No Tracking & Updates.

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More Free Multibaggers

You can find More Free Multibaggers here.

https://futurecapsblog.wordpress.com/free-multibaggers-2019/

Disclaimer Futurecaps is an independent equity research team. Use of the information herein is at Investor’s own risk. This is not an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities and Futurecaps will not be liable for any losses incurred for the investment based on the advice.  The Investor is advised to do due diligence in the scrip mentioned.  None of Futurecaps Advisors hold 1% above Holdings of this company.

 

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