Corona Virus & Stock Market Impact

We are getting lot of queries on:

Whether Recession started?
Can I sell my holdings to stop losses?
Which stocks to Buy now?
How long the Corona problems persist?

Don’t Panic!

is the first thing I wanted to say.. If you get panic, you will take bad decisions, your immunity goes down & bad for your wealth & health!

Corona Situation

Clearly it has started a Recession – but our Calculation is that the First Relief comes in 3 months – due to multiple factors like quarantine effect, cure arrival, climate change etc.

(already the growth of cases is reducing & stock futures are up – so this may not go worse that much; see MIT study LINK)

The Currently Impacted Sectors are BEACH:

Booking businesses
Entertainment businesses
Airlines businesses
Cruise businesses
Hotels businesses

All the employees from above sectors will have Immediate Impact.

Note If the situation last more than 3 months then IT & IT enabled sectors will also see employment troubles.

Take care of Health

As the first step one should follow the Quarantine order of Government, Sanitize regularly & Maintain social distancing.

Jaan hei to Jahaan hei!

Take care of Wealth

I am repeating this in our sessions too, Keep aside 1 Year Emergency Fund. This can come in form of Gold, Fixed Deposits & Liquid Cash.

Once you have the 1Y EmF ready then there is no need to be Panic!

World is not going to end in 1 Year – Keep Hope!

Job Strategy

If your Job is going to be in trouble, make sure you spend time on Up-scaling Skills, Doing Certifications, Acquiring knowledge etc.

Moratorium or Not

One can avail the Moratorium of RBI, if you seriously need it.

But keep in mind that it will increase your Interest Payment for 3 months! LINK

Worrying is a Waste of Time!

No matter how much you are going to Worry or Pray – Situations are not going to Improve – It will Scientific Approaches & Healing Time to cure the situation.

One should be Smart enough to be Safe as well as Gain from the Situations!

Stock Market Strategy

Do not check your portfolio on these days – as it is going to be miserable. Now the time changed & you should change the strategy too.

As informed earlier, you can find our Recession Strategy report HERE.

March 29, 2020 0

Globus Spirits – Multibagger Analysis

In this post we can explore Globus Spirits as a Multibagger base on Warren Buffet methodologies.

Globus Spirits Ltd.

NSE Code	GLOBUSSPR.NS
BSE Code	533104
URL	http://www.globusspirits.com/
CMP	125.22
Free Report	Yes
Publish Date	Feb-07-2020

About Company

Founded in 1992, Globus Spirits is the Largest grain based distilleries in India headed by Mr. Ajay Kumar. It is into liquor business for last 25 years and commenced operation in Haryana currently leading player in Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi. It is using 360 degree business model where IMIL (Indian Manufactured Indian Liquor), IMFL (Indian Manufactured Foreign Liquor), Franchisee Bottling all are held.

The company recorded 20% growth in Net Income & 400% growth in Net Profit. Liquor Business in India is expected to grow at 8% per annum till 2025. Company is running at 85% capacity utilization of 160 million liter.

Company manufactures the following brands including joined manufacturing for new Brand UNIBEV which is under leadership of Vijay Rekhi (veteran UB Spirits) link link

Warren Buffet, Value & Growth Checklist

Following are the Checklist parameters:

Capitalization	350 CR – Can provide ample growth in capitalization
History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow	Yes.
Durable Competitive Advantage	Moderate.
Future Growth Drivers / Sector Growth	Yes.
Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)	No, Debt is high.
Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio	Debt is high. Current Ratio is 0.84
Return on Equity must be Above Average	8%
Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations	No.
Inventory Turnover Ratio, Debtor Days, ROCE	Moderate
Management is holding / buying the stock	Yes, Increasing holdings by Promoters
Market Price < Intrinsic Value	Yes with 90% Discount. Intrinsic Value Calculator
Stock Price is consolidating (now)	Yes
Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth	No, North-South curves exists
Consolidated PE, PB Ratio, PEG Ratio	PE 9 PB 0.9 PEG 0.1
Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%	Cash Flow: NegativeNet Profit %: No
Paying Dividends, Tax	No Dividends Yes Tax
EPS Growth Rate	50% above past 2 years
Jump in Trailing Result EPS	Yes
Jump in Quarterly Result EPS	YesBut, March q-o-q shows decline in profits
Expected Gain in 5 Years	300-500%
Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low	Okay
Volume Analysis	1.2 Lakh
Power of Brand	Yes
Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders	Yes
Fraud reported	No.

Positive Factors

Here are the positive factors regarding Globus Spirits

Company is in growth spree
Company is quoting near book value – Safe to enter now
Promoters are increasing stake
UNIBEV alliance will help to grow faster
Budget 2020 will help growth in Sales

Concern Factors

Here are the concern factors regarding Globus Spirits

Debt is high
Cash Flow is negative
Government Regulations can impact Profitability

Summary

Based on the above analysis I would like to say that the Globus Spirits possess Multibagger Stock properties and one can Invest in 2020. However one should not expect high compounded returns from this stock. It can be considered as Moderate Risk Moderate Returns investment.

Note

This is a Free Multibagger recommend as a Backup to the Paid Multibagger which is also in Alcohol sector. Do not waste time as Market is still low for 5-Year Full Cycle Multibagger Returns

Renew your subscription to know the Paid Stock & Get free Post Budget Report & Essential Training too. 3 Year Subscription – link.

February 7, 2020 0

Protected: Purpose of Investing – Wealth or Income?

November 17, 2019

Protected: Most people uses Loan for destroying wealth – Not You!

November 17, 2019

Is Kanchi Karpooram a Multibagger?

We are publishing this Analysis based on the Query from our Paid Subscriber. The company have good Trailing results & seems to lure lot of investors.

Let us analyze in Warren Buffet way on the Financials.

NSE Code	KANCHI.NS
BSE Code	538896
URL	https://www.kanchikarpooram.com/
CMP	270
Free Report	Yes
Publish Date	Nov-15-2019

Kanchi Karpooram Limited (KKL), a Public Limited Company, manufactures Camphor, its derivatives, Gum rosin, Value Added Resins and Fortified Rosin. Over the last 25 years, it has a proven track record for quality, competitive price and timely supply to a variety of customer across industries. The main product Camphor has been well accepted by customers. Besides Camphor and its derivatives, KKL’s products such as Gum rosin and Rosin Derivatives, also enjoy an enviable share in the market, including some of the most trusted brands across the world.

Warren Buffet, Value & Growth Checklist

Following are the 25 Checklist parameters:

Capitalization	115 Crore
History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow	Yes.
Durable Competitive Advantage	Moderate.
Future Growth Drivers / Sector Growth	Moderate.
Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)	Yes
Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio	Both are Good
Return on Equity must be Above Average	55% (Excellent)
Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations	Moderate
Inventory Turnover Ratio, Debtor Days, ROCE	Increasing. Moderate
Management is holding / buying the stock	Yes
Market Price < Intrinsic Value	Yes.
Stock Price is consolidating (now)	Yes
Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth	Yes
Consolidated PE, PB Ratio, PEG Ratio	PE 4, PB is 2X, PEG 0.2
Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%	Cash Flow: NegativeNet Profit: Yes
Paying Dividends, Tax	Yes
EPS Growth Rate	30% above
Jump in Trailing Result EPS	Yes
Jump in Quarterly Result EPS	Yes. But recent 2 q-o-q not increasing in profits
Expected Gain in 5 Years	200-300% (If smallcap/midcap market restores)
Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low	Okay
Volume Analysis	2000
Power of Brand	Moderate
Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders	Very small company. Cannot measure this.
Fraud reported	Not in current search.

Summary

Based on the above analysis we can see Kanchi Karpooram have Multibagger Stock properties. Company aligns with Warren Buffet principles of Value & Growth Investing. It can be considered as Low Risk Moderate Returns investment. However, investor has to do more due diligence on the stock before investing.

Note: We only do 100 Point checklist on Paid Multibaggers which the Advisor Team also will be Investing. Do not waste time with free multibaggers where you will not get tracking updates. Visit Subscribe to know more.

November 16, 2019 0

PSP Projects Multibagger Analysis (Warren Buffet Way)

In this post we can analyze PSP Projects based on Warren Buffet methodology.

NSE Code	PSPPROJECT.NS
BSE Code	540544
URL	http://www.pspprojects.com/
CMP	540
Free Report	Yes
Publish Date	Oct-30-2019

PSP Projects is a multidisciplinary construction company offering a diversified range of construction and allied services across industrial, institutional, government, government residential and residential projects in India. They provide our services across the construction value chain, ranging from planning and design to construction and post-construction activities to private and public sector enterprises.

Warren Buffet, Value & Growth Checklist

Following are the Checklist parameters:

Capitalization	2000 Crore
History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow	Yes.
Durable Competitive Advantage	Yes.
Future Growth Drivers / Sector Growth	Yes.
Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)	No, company have slightly higher debt
Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio	Debt Equity Ratio is 0.17 Current Ratio is 1.5
Return on Equity must be Above Average	27% (Good)
Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations	Moderate
Inventory Turnover Ratio, Debtor Days, ROCE	Moderate
Management is holding / buying the stock	Yes
Market Price < Intrinsic Value	Yes. Intrinsic Value at Rs. 1128 Intrinsic Value Calculator
Stock Price is consolidating (now)	No. Price is at Peak levels due to QR Jumps which Indicate a 100% Returns on Bull Market. However a slash in earnings will cut 50% of Price too as we are currently in Bear Market
Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth	Yes.
Consolidated PE, PB Ratio, PEG Ratio	PE Good, PB is 5X, PEG is good
Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%	Cash Flow: Negative Net Profit: Yes
Paying Dividends, Tax	Yes
EPS Growth Rate	20% above
Jump in Trailing Result EPS	Yes
Jump in Quarterly Result EPS	Yes
Expected Gain in 5 Years	300-500%
Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low	Okay
Volume Analysis	13000
Power of Brand	Yes, Company has good Brand & Promoters
Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders	Yes
Fraud reported	No.

Summary

Based on the above analysis we can see PSP Projects have Multibagger Stock properties & One can Invest during 2019 year. Company aligns with Warren Buffet principles of Value & Growth Investing. It can be considered as Low Risk Moderate Returns investment.

Premium Services

This stock analysis is part of our Free Services where Tracking & Updates will Not be provided. If you are a Serious Investor, we encourage to Buy our Premium Service where our Adviser Team is investing along with Tracking & Updates.

Disclaimer Futurecaps is an independent equity research team. Use of the information herein is at Investor’s own risk. This is not an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities and Futurecaps will not be liable for any losses incurred for the investment based on the advice. The Investor is advised to do due diligence in the scrip mentioned. None of Futurecaps Advisors hold 1% above Holdings of this company.

October 30, 2019 0

Is Bella Casa a Multibagger Stock based on Warren Buffet Analysis?

Bella Casa Fashion & Retail Ltd

NSE Code	BELLACASA.NS
BSE Code	539399
URL	http://www.bellacasa.in/
CMP	122
Free Report	Yes
Publish Date	Sep-30-2019

In this post we would like to Explore the Multibagger Stock Potential of Bella Casa.

Bella Casa Fashion & Retail Ltd is operating in fast growing fashion market of India. Bella Casa is catering to 2 lakh cr market. The market size of home furnishings, women ethnic wear and men’s ethnic wear is more than Rs 2 lacs cr.

Positive Factors

Company have consistent 15% Revenue & Profit growth in past 3 years.

Company is quoting at Low PE of 15 due to current market sentiments

Company is trading at 40% discount from 52 week high due to market sentiments, GST troubles etc.

Company is poised for long term growth advantages due to Structural Tax changes & India growth story.

Company has more than 4000 retail outlets in india & expanding through branding, innovation, e-commerce & deep penetration.

India is 2nd largest exporter of home textiles & hold 7% global share. The India home decor consumption is growing at CAGR 8% due to real estate trends, millenial disposable income etc. which will support the company growth in future too.

Company had Expanded Capacity activation in current financial year.

Concern Factors

Current Quarter EPS growth is low due to GST & Tax Impacts. This is measured to be recovering in upcoming years.

Global Recession can impact the Sales in near future. But long term seems to be okay.

FDI Participation, Increased Competition from Global Brands, Government policies are Other Threats in the path of the company

Warren Buffet, Value & Growth Checklist

Following are the Checklist parameters:

Capitalization	140 Crore
History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow	Yes.
Durable Competitive Advantage	Yes.
Future Growth Drivers / Sector Growth	Yes.
Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)	No, company have higher debt
Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio	Debt Equity Ratio is 1 (this is bad for growth) Current Ratio is 4 ( no liquidity crunch)
Return on Equity must be Above Average	21% (Good)
Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations	No
Inventory Turnover Ratio, Debtor Days, ROCE	Moderate, High Debtor Days
Management is holding / buying the stock	Management sold 5%
Market Price < Intrinsic Value	Yes. Intrinsic Value at Rs. 250 Intrinsic Value Calculator
Stock Price is consolidating (now)	Yes
Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth	Yes.
Consolidated PE, PB Ratio, PEG Ratio	Okay
Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%	Cash Flow: Negative Net Profit: No
Paying Dividends, Tax	Yes
EPS Growth Rate	15% above
Jump in Trailing Result EPS	Yes
Jump in Quarterly Result EPS	Yes
Expected Gain in 5 Years	300-500%
Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low	Okay
Volume Analysis	82 (good for existing investors, bad for new investors)
Power of Brand	Yes, Company has good Brand & Ambassador Jacqueline Fernandez
Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders	Yes
Fraud reported	No. But high remuneration ration & increments for core promoters

Summary

Based on the above analysis I would like to declare that the Bella Casa possess Multibagger Stock in Indian Stock Market & One can Invest during 2019 year. Company aligns with Warren Buffet principles of Value & Growth Investing. It can be considered as Low Risk Moderate Returns investment.

Premium Services

September 30, 2019 0

Buyers Market, Sellers Market & General Updates

It was an year ago I asked to Exit Stocks to my Paid Circle. At the time NIFTY PE was Peak at 29, along with Smallcaps & Midcaps were mindlessly over-valued. If I remember correctly, Cera was valued at PE 60 with a Flat EPS Growth.

When I said to Exit the stocks, especially over-valued ones – few people contradicted it. They were saying market will grow further from here & continued buying more. Their confidence were built by just few years of investing. However, I have cleared my stocks during the time ensuring I made profits & no losses further.

Today when I see the same Contra Investors, I cannot see that Buying Confidence in them. They are already burnt their portfolio with 50% Loss and No Confidence in stock market!

What Happened here?

As I said before, there is Buyers Market and Sellers Market in any Investing Arena. I used to handle multiple areas like stock market, real estate, gold market etc. – so I can assure that this Buyers Market & Sellers Market exists in all these areas.

What is Buyers Market?

Buyers Market is a state where Prices are Under-valued, Pessimism runs in the Veins of Investors, Investors shy away from this market!

This is called Buyers Market because we Buy things Cheap here! An Intelligent Investor would see this market as an Opportunity to Buy & Hold for Long term.

What is Sellers Market?

Sellers Market is contrary to Buyers Market where Prices are Over-valued, Optimism makes Investor blind on valuations, they run & accumulate all stocks on limelight. This is extreme madness state.

This is called Sellers Market because we can Sell things at Higher Price here! An Intelligent Investor would see this market as an Opportunity to Sell & Switch to other Investment vehicles.

Only 5% People really make money in Stock Market!

Nevertheless to say, Only 5% People make money in Stock Market as 95% act against the crowd by selling in the buyers market & buying in the sellers market.

In fact, these 95% amateurs are helping the 5% intelligent investors. The amateurs buy at high price allowing the intelligent investors to gain more profits. The amateurs sell at low prices allowing the intelligent investors to buy at cheaper prices.

So they just double the returns. For example one who bought at Rs. 100 and Sold at Rs. 1000 will gain 1000% profits. At the same time if it is bought at Rs. 50 during bear market and sold at same Rs. 1000 the gain will be 2000%!!

So what is the Current Market Situation?

As of now, we have provided our HNI Customers with the Market Situation reports.

India Large Cap Segment is SELLERS MARKET

India Mid Cap Segment is NEUTRAL.

India Small Cap Segment is BUYERS MARKET

So what should one Infer from it?

One should start selling over-valued stocks in Large Cap segments.

One can start buying under-valued stocks in Small Cap segments.

Think Long Term

During 2018 I sold my stocks & moved to other Investment Vehicles. Again in 2019, I restarted buying stocks with a holding vision of 5-10 years or more. I repeat, stock market is a place where we have to give ample time for the company to perform, grow, profit & reward the investor. It is a compounding process taking time! So think Long Term & Start Investing now!!

You cannot Sail without a Bear Market

It is all about wrong education than if an Investor thinks they can completely Ignore a Bear Market – Absolutely Not! In my case, even though I escaped from the biggest disaster, I still encountered losses after my restart in investment.

One time my portfolio went 30% on loss, but I continued buying more as “potato was cheaper”. Now the Portfolio is in 10% profit level as the stocks recovered.

Even Warren Buffet does the same. During 2008 crashes he Invested in Bank of America stock – but the stock went down from his price too – he continued buying and after few years – he is in deep profits! So the lower the price – higher the profits!

My theory is simple, if one is expecting 500-1000% returns in stock market, he should be willing to see 30% losses in portfolio!

However, for a troubled investor these words will not add value – they will continue to be Idle in the buyers market & once the recovery happens – they will again buy on top & just having mediocre returns.

Few Stock Updates

Two of our 5-Multibagger-Picks got Listed in High Growth Asian Companies of India Companies 2019. They have High EPS Growth along with Moderate or No-Debt.

One other company issued Bonus Shares.

Other one is having whopping 70% EPS growth too.

For those who have missed Investing in these 5-Multibaggers, can buy the eBook at a Discounted Price here.

Intrinsic Value Calculator

As part of Education & Evaluation, we have Built our own Intrinsic Value Calculator and Exposed as Free here.

Forum

We have started a Forum to Help Investors with Value Oriented responses. You can register & start querying here.

July 18, 2019 0

Is Ashok Leyland a Multibagger Stock based on Warren Buffet Analysis?

Ashok Leyland Ltd.

NSE Code	ASHOKLEY.NS
BSE Code	500477
URL	https://www.ashokleyland.com
CMP	88
Free Report	Yes
Publish Date	Jun-14-2019

In this post we would like to Explore the Multibagger Stock Potential of Ashok Leyland based on a blog reader request.

Ashok Leyland Multibagger Stock — **Screener:** https://www.screener.in/company/ASHOKLEY/

About Company

Ashok Leyland is an Indian automobile company headquartered in Chennai, India. It is owned by the Hinduja Group. Founded in 1948, it is the second largest commercial vehicle manufacturer in India and fourth largest manufacturer of buses in the world and 10th largest manufacturer of trucks globally. Company is mainly into LCV & MCV business & also generates Revenue from Power Solutions, Aftermath Accessories, Defense Vehicles, Foundry Division too. The company have plants across 10 locations in Tamil Nadu, Uttarkand, Rajasthan and Maharashtra.

Indian Commercial Vehicle Industry grew 23% past year & this growth is going to stay for next 5 years based on Government push on Infrastructure growth & New Roads.

Bharat Stage IV (BS-IV) emission norms is boosting the Sales of Ashok Leyland. Union Budget is in Favor of Infrastructure & Automobile Sector.

The company was able to generate 15% growth in M&HCV segment i the past 5 years as displayed below. IMF projecting India GDP growth of 7% should benefit the company.

Positive Factors

Here are the positive factors regarding Ashok Leyland.

Past year company launched 17 new products. This will reflect in future sales.
Company is entering into Electrical Segments. Aligned with Government initiatives this will support future growth
The LCV business recorded 37% growth and is growing 20% CAGR
The Defense business also grew by 32% with a 20% CAGR
Credit Rating of the company was Improved after 18 years as AA+ rating
Company has Unique iEGR innovation regarding BS IV standards. This will give edge against competitors
Company crossed 100 Thousand Unit Sales in Medium & Heavy Vehicle Segment, and 43 Thousand Unit Sales in LMV segment.
Crude Oil Prices being supportive to Company operations.
Government push on Hybrid & Electrical Vehicles will be Future Determination of Growth for Ashok Leyland.
Advantage of Price Crash will give Margin of Safety at Current Price. There is a 50% discount to Fifty Two Week High Price on the company
Ashok Leyland have a Good Brand Reputation & Hence Low Risk Investors prefer to hold to this company
High Dividend Yield of 3%

Concern Factors

Here are the concern factors regarding Ashok Leyland.

High Capitalization of 25000 Crore. To become a 10-bagger it will be 2.5 Lakh Crore Capitalization which is too high to achieve.
Limited expected Multibagger Returns around 300%.
Pledged Shares exists which is a Red-mark on the company. However the promoters are buying back more shares too.
High capex required for expansions.
No high massive expansion plans through new factory Or new market penetration.
Company is more dependable on India automobile industry
Company have only 5% share in the Indian Bus Market
BS VI norms becoming mandatory from 2020 will be a Challenge for the company
Threat of Low Sale Continuity in Auto-Sectors can adversely affect the Profitability of the company & thereby Price too Link

Warren Buffet, Value & Growth Checklist

Following are the Checklist parameters:

Capitalization	25000 Crore (Largecap) – already a Blue Chip level growth happened
History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow	Yes.
Durable Competitive Advantage	Moderate.
Future Growth Drivers / Sector Growth	Yes. (Electrical Segment)
Conservative Debt (long term debt < 3 Net Profit)	Yes
Debt Equity Ratio, Current Ratio	Debt is Almost Zero.Current Ratio is 0.93
Return on Equity must be Above Average	23%
Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations	No.
Inventory Turnover Ratio, Debtor Days, ROCE	Good. Debtor Days reduced to 9 days. ROCE is 28%
Management is holding / buying the stock	Yes *But pledging exists
Market Price < Intrinsic Value	Yes. Intrinsic Value at Rs. 200 which gives 50% Margin of Safety. See Futurecaps specific Intrinsic Value Calculator
Stock Price is consolidating (now)	Yes
Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth	Yes.
Consolidated PE, PB Ratio, PEG Ratio	PE 13 (okay)PB 3 (good) PEG 0.23 (good)
Cash Flow Positive, Net Profit % greater than 8%	Cash Flow: Negative Net Profit %: Yes
Paying Dividends, Tax	Yes
EPS Growth Rate	15% above
Jump in Trailing Result EPS	Yes
Jump in Quarterly Result EPS	Yes But, March q-o-q shows decline in profits
Expected Gain in 5 Years	200-300%
Price Movement Graph, 52 Week High & Low	Okay
Volume Analysis	88 Lakh (high liquidity / stable growth expected)
Power of Brand	Yes
Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders	Yes
Fraud reported	No.

Summary

Based on the above analysis I would like to say that the Ashok Leyland possess Multibagger Stock properties and one can Invest in 2019. However one should not expect high compounded returns from this stock. It can be considered as Low Risk Low Returns investment.

Premium Services

This stock analysis is part of our Free Services where Tracking & Updates will Not be provided. We encourage Serious Investors to Buy our Premium Service where our Adviser Team is investing along with Tracking & Updates.

Free Multibagger Stocks

You can find More Free Multibagger Stocks here.

https://futurecapsblog.wordpress.com/free-multibaggers-2019/

June 14, 2019 0